The study was delivered by the NSW Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW) as part of the Seabirds to Seascapes program. It reflects DCCEEW’s commitment to evidence-based conservation, transparency and long-term monitoring of seabird populations.
The findings provide an updated population estimate to guide future research, management and habitat restoration priorities.
The Great Big Little Penguin Count – New South Wales
The Great Big Little Penguin Count was conducted over 3 breeding seasons in New South Wales (2023–2025), following a pilot study in 2022.
The program aimed to:
- develop a consistent, repeatable survey method
- produce a statewide breeding population estimate
- identify knowledge gaps to inform future research and management.
Population estimates are based on surveys conducted using consistent methodology across sites during the study period.
Statewide population estimate
The study estimates the breeding population of the little penguin (Eudyptula minor) at 2,443 ± 225 breeding pairs. This represents the most current and standardised estimate available for New South Wales.
A previous estimate from 1979 suggested approximately 16,800 pairs; however, that figure was derived from multiple sources using varying methods and should be considered indicative only. Many historical estimates lack the rigour of contemporary survey approaches and are not directly comparable.
Important context and limitations
The population figures in this report should be considered indicative of the scale of the population rather than a definitive count.
Limitations include:
- some islands surveyed in a single season only
- sampling rather than complete census counts
- seasonal variability in ocean conditions affecting breeding success
- limited New South Wales-specific ecological data to inform correction factors.
Correction factors were applied where possible using available data. However, much ecological information for little penguins has historically been drawn from studies outside New South Wales, particularly at Phillip Island, where colony conditions differ significantly.
Despite these limitations, large changes in population size can be detected reliably when consistent methods are applied over time. The 2026 report provides the best available statewide estimate under current resource and data conditions.
Population trends
The study indicates that the NSW penguin population has declined, particularly on some historically larger breeding islands.
Key observations include:
- declines recorded at several major breeding colonies, including Barunguba Montague Island and Bowen Island
- ongoing pressures on the mainland Manly Little Penguin endangered population, listed under the Biodiversity Conservation Act 2016
- a newly establishing colony at Eden affected by fox predation
- a small but growing colony at Snapper Island providing valuable data on recruitment and survival
- smaller island populations ranging from stable to declining.
Identified and potential threats
The report identifies several potential threats affecting little penguins in New South Wales. The relative impact of these threats has not yet been quantified and requires further research.
- Habitat degradation, including kikuyu infestation and loss of native vegetation
- Predation by foxes, particularly at mainland and near-shore sites
- Variability in ocean currents and sea surface temperatures
- Changes in prey availability and quality
- Fisheries targeting small and bait fish
- Increasing New Zealand fur seal numbers along the NSW coast
Oceanic conditions during the study period affected breeding timing and chick condition in some seasons. However, targeted NSW research linking foraging ecology, breeding success and oceanographic data is currently limited.
Monitoring and research priorities
The study highlights the need for ongoing seasonal monitoring and targeted research to:
- measure breeding productivity and recruitment
- understand adult survival rates
- examine foraging ecology and local ocean conditions
- assess the impact of fisheries and seal populations
- improve New South Wales-specific ecological data.
Regular breeding season monitoring is recommended at key sites, including:
- Barunguba Montague Island
- Bowen Island
- Lion Island
- Snapper Island
- Manly.
Ongoing monitoring provides seasonal context for population counts and supports adaptive management in response to environmental variability and climate change.
Habitat management
Habitat degradation, particularly weed invasion, is a significant issue on some breeding islands. Long-term investment in weed control and habitat regeneration would improve nesting habitat availability, particularly on historically larger colonies.
Commitment to evidence-based conservation
While further research is required to better understand drivers of change, the report provides:
- the most current estimate of breeding population size
- a consistent methodology for future monitoring
- identification of priority research and management areas
- a foundation for long-term conservation planning.
DCCEEW will use this data to inform future monitoring, research investment and management actions to support sustainable little penguin populations in New South Wales.
This report was developed by lead researchers Dr Lisa O'Neill and Nicholas Carlile on behalf of DCCEEW.
To request a copy of the full report, please email [email protected].
The Seabirds to Seascapes (S2S) project is led by the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, and brings together government, scientists, conservation organisations and communities. It’s funded through a $6.6 million NSW Environmental Trust grant, with a further $2.5 million provided as in-kind support by S2S project partners that include the Taronga Conservation Society Australia, Sydney Institute of Marine Science and NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service.
