Our Net Zero Emissions Modelling Team, established in 2019, helps inform and support the NSW Government’s net zero policies and programs. This dedicated team of scientists conduct state- and economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions modelling to support net zero actions and track New South Wales' progress towards achieving our net zero emissions objectives. This work includes:
- initial emission projections that informed the Net zero plan stage 1: 2020–2030
- updated projections that informed the Net zero plan stage 1: 2020–2030 implementation update (the 2021 emissions projections update)
- updated projections that informed the Net zero plan implementation update 2022 (the 2022 emissions projections update)
- deriving local-scale greenhouse gas data for each local government area (LGA) within New South Wales to inform place-based net zero actions
- publication of the NSW Net Zero Emissions Dashboard to make information on past and projected future emissions, local-scale emissions and progress towards net zero emission targets easily accessible.
The NSW Net Zero Emissions Dashboard is an interactive web application the supports spatial mapping and trend analysis of greenhouse gas emissions data. The data and the dashboard will be updated each year with the best available information.
Future emissions projection
NSW emissions are projected out to 2050 for base-case and current policy scenarios. The base-case projections model the state’s likely emissions based on current trends, not including emission reductions expected from actions taken under the Net Zero Plan and related government policies and programs. Projecting base-case emissions reveals the additional efforts needed to meet our emission reduction targets.
To develop base-case emission projections, external factors that affect emissions are considered such as:
- global and local technology, energy and market trends
- climate impacts and land-use management changes
- major sector trends
- economic and population growth forecasts
- changes to the international and national policy context.
The current policy projections include emissions reductions to be achieved by programs to be implemented under Stage 1 of the Net Zero Plan, plus related government policies and programs.
All major sectors of the NSW economy are addressed in the modelling, including electricity, transport, agriculture, on-site combustion, mining, industry, waste, land use and forestry.
Our scientists work with policy and program developers to look at combinations of technologies, policies and programs able to deliver effective emissions reductions, while also growing the economy and jobs and delivering air quality and associated health benefits. This analysis considers interdependencies and interactions between actions, and ensures our portfolio of actions adequately addresses sector emissions and supports progress towards net zero emissions.
Read more about the assumptions and methods used in our future emission projections in the NSW Greenhouse gas emissions projections 2022: Methods paper.
Regional and local-scale emissions
The NSW Greenhouse Gas Inventory is published annually by the Australian Government as part of the Australian National Greenhouse Accounts, which are used to meet Australia’s reporting requirements under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The inventory includes state-aggregated greenhouse gas emissions by sector.
The Net Zero Emissions Modelling team develops regional and local-scale emissions data for New South Wales to inform actions by state and local government, business and communities which support progress towards achieving net zero emissions.
Read more about the assumptions and methods used in deriving local-scale emissions in the NSW Regional and local greenhouse gas emissions: Methods paper.
Air quality benefits
Improved air quality and associated health benefits are likely to be achieved by actions taken to meet net zero emissions, such as transitioning to cleaner energy, industry and transport. Our Net Zero Emissions Modelling and Atmospheric Research teams work together to assess and develop ways to track changes in air quality and health benefits derived from net zero actions.
Read more about our Air quality research.