Climate change is projected to affect different regions of NSW in different ways. The NSW Climate Impact Profile presents information on the likely impacts of climate change in each of the State Plan Regions.
Temperature
Virtually certain to rise. Average daily temperatures are likely to increase in all seasons, with greatest increases in spring and winter (by 2.0 to 3.0 °C).
Rainfall
Increases likely in all seasons except winter.
Sea Level
Virtually certain to rise. Sea level is projected to rise 0.4 m by 2050 and 0.9 m by 2100.
Run-off
Minor annual increases are likely because of substantial increases in summer run-off.
Fire
Fire regimes are likely to change, with increasing fire frequency more likely towards 2050.
Droughts
Short-term droughts are likely to become more severe. Medium- to long-term ones are likely to be less severe.
Floods
Frequency is likely to increase because of rising sea levels and catchment-driven flooding.
Land
The major coastline impact is likely to come from sea level rise. Erosion is likely to increase on the steeper slopes of the upper catchments. Coastal erosion will increase.
Settlements
Those near estuaries and beaches are likely to be the most vulnerable. Low-lying areas will flood more frequently.
Ecosystems
The most vulnerable are those on foreshores, as well as highly cleared and fragmented forests and woodlands.
Temperature
Virtually certain to rise. Average daily temperatures are likely to increase in all seasons, with the greatest increases in winter (by 2.0 to 3.0 °C).
Rainfall
Will increase in summer and autumn and decrease in winter.
Sea Level
Virtually certain to rise. Sea level is projected to rise 0.4m by 2050 and 0.9m by 2100.
Run-off
Substantial increases in size and depth are likely in summer.
Fire
Fire regimes are likely to change, with increasing fire frequency likely towards 2050.
Droughts
Short-term droughts are likely to become more severe. Medium- to long-term ones are likely to be less severe.
Floods
Rising sea levels and catchment-driven flooding are likely to increase flood frequency.
Land
The major coastline impact is likely to be from sea level rise. Erosion is likely to increase on the steeper slopes of upper catchments.
Settlements
Sea level rise and the resulting erosion are likely to have substantial impacts on coastal settlements, beaches, public infrastructure and residential and commercial property.
Ecosystems
Those vulnerable include saline wetlands, low-lying coastal ecosystems and fragmented forests in the hinterland.
Temperature
Virtually certain to rise. Average daily maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to increase in all seasons by 1.5 to 3.0 °C.
Rainfall
Likely to increase in all seasons except winter.
Sea Level
Virtually certain to rise. Sea level is projected to rise 0.4 m by 2050 and 0.9 m by 2100.
Run-off
Likely to increase substantially in summer.
Fire
Fire regimes are likely to change, with increasing fire frequency likely towards 2050.
Droughts
Short-term droughts are likely to become more severe. Medium- to long-term ones are likely to be less severe.
Floods
Rising sea levels and catchment-driven flooding are likely to increase flood frequency.
Land
Sea level rise and the resulting flooding and erosion will have major impacts on the coastline. Changes in rainfall are likely to increase sediment shedding from the hinterland.
Settlements
Those near estuaries and beaches are likely to be the most vulnerable. Low-lying areas will flood more frequently.
Ecosystems
Low-lying coastal ecosystems are at risk, as are fragmented ecosystems such as those on the Cumberland Plain.
Temperature
Virtually certain to rise. Minimum and maximum daily temperatures are likely to increase by 1.5 to 3.0 °C.
Rainfall
Likely to increase substantially in summer, with moderate increases in both spring and autumn.
Sea Level
Virtually certain to rise. Sea level is projected to rise 0.4 m by 2050 and 0.9 m by 2100.
Run-off
Likely to decrease moderately in spring but increase substantially in summer.
Fire
Fire regimes are likely to change, with increasing fire frequency likely towards 2050.
Droughts
Short-term droughts are likely to become more severe. Medium- to long-term ones are likely to be less severe.
Floods
Rising sea levels and catchment-driven flooding are likely to increase flood frequency.
Land
Sea level rise is likely to flood and erode parts of the coastline. Changes in rainfall will increase sediment shedding from the hinterland and erode banks.
Settlements
Those near estuaries and beaches are likely to be the most vulnerable to sea level rise and the resulting flooding and erosion.
Ecosystems
The most vulnerable are those on foreshores and those that are highly cleared and fragmented, such as on the Illawarra coastal plain.
Temperature
Virtually certain to rise. Average daily maximum temperatures are likely to increase in all seasons, with the largest increases in autumn, winter and spring (by 2.0 to 3.0 °C).
Rainfall
Likely to increase in summer and decrease in winter. A reduction in snow cover is likely in alpine areas.
Sea Level
Virtually certain to rise. Sea level is projected to rise 0.4 m by 2050 and 0.9 m by 2100.
Run-off
Likely to decrease substantially in spring and increase substantially in summer.
Fire
Fire regimes are likely to change, with increasing fire frequency likely towards 2050.
Droughts
Short-term droughts are likely to become more severe. Medium- to long-term ones are likely to be less severe.
Floods
Rising sea levels and catchment-driven flooding are likely to increase flood frequency and extent in the lower areas of coastal floodplains. More intense rainfall events will change flood behaviour everywhere else.
Land
The major coastline impact is likely to be from sea-level rise. Dryland salinity is likely to increase because of changes in groundwater hydrology.
Settlements
Major impacts are likely from erosion and flooding. Low-lying settlements are particularly at risk.
Ecosystems
Widespread changes in natural ecosystems are expected to occur, with snow-dependent ecosystems and alpine species at particular risk.
Temperature
Virtually certain to rise. Average daily maximum and minimum temperatures will very likely increase by 1.0 to 3.0 °C.
Rainfall
Likely to increase in all seasons except winter.
Run-off
Yearly average is likely to increase as a result of substantial increases in summer run-off.
Fire
Fire regimes are likely to change, with increasing fire frequency likely towards 2050.
Droughts
Short-term droughts are likely to become more severe. Medium- to long-term ones are likely to be less severe.
Floods
Increasing intensity of flood-producing rainfall events is likely to change flood behaviour.
Land
Reductions in vegetation cover because of poorer growing conditions will leave some soils vulnerable to wind and water erosion.
Settlements
Increases in rainfall events are likely to increase flooding from urban streams and drainage systems.
Ecosystems
High-altitude forests are likely to contract. Environmental stress placed on specialised biological communities will cause degradation.
Temperature
Virtually certain to rise. Average daily minimum temperatures will very likely rise by 0.5 to
2.0 °C, depending on the season.
Rainfall
Likely to increase in summer and decrease in winter.
Run-off
Increases are likely in summer and autumn.
Fire
Fire regimes are likely to change, with increasing fire frequency likely towards 2050.
Droughts
Short-term droughts are likely to become more severe. Medium- to long-term ones are likely to be less severe.
Floods
Increasing intensity of flood-producing rainfall events is likely to change flood behaviour. Soil moisture levels and water storage levels will affect the degree of change.
Land
Erosion is likely to increase because of more frequent and intense storms and reduced vegetation cover. Vulnerable areas include some surface soils on the alluvial plains, and gullies on the slopes and plains.
Settlements
Flood-producing rainfall may increase flooding of property. This depends on catchment moisture levels and water storage levels at the time.
Ecosystems
Hotter and drier conditions are likely to affect all natural ecosystems. The worst affected are likely to be riverine and wetland ecosystems.
Temperature
Virtually certain to rise. Average daily maximum temperatures will very likely be 1.5 to 3.0 °C higher in all seasons.
Rainfall
Likely to increase in summer and decline substantially in spring, autumn and winter.
Run-off
Minor annual decreases likely.
Fire
Fire regimes are likely to change, with increasing fire frequency likely towards 2050.
Droughts
Short-term droughts are likely to become more severe. Medium- to long-term ones are likely to be less severe.
Floods
Increasing intensity of flood-producing rainfall events is likely to change flood behaviour. Soil moisture levels and water storage levels will affect the degree of change.
Land
Reduced vegetation cover, caused by overall drier conditions, is likely to increase erosion risk. Areas vulnerable to erosion include the alluvial plains of the Riverina and gullies on the South West Slopes and Plains.
Settlements
There is likely to be a rise in the frequency and intensity of flood-producing rainfall that may increase flooding of property. This depends on catchment moisture levels and water storage levels at the time.
Ecosystems
All are vulnerable. Wetlands are expected to suffer the largest declines in productivity and nutrient cycling.
